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02/22/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With just one victory in their last six games, the Washington Capitals are desperate to get their postseason push back on track.
The Caps hope they can bounce back tonight at Ottawa's Scotiabank Place, where they'll try to complete a season sweep of a Senators team that has been red- hot of late.
Washington is 3-0 against the Senators this year and tonight's meeting is the final scheduled encounter of the regular season. All told, the Capitals have claimed six of the last seven matchups in this series overall and two of the last three in Canada's capital city.
However, while the Caps are 1-4-1 in their last six games, Ottawa enters tonight riding a three-game winning streak. The Senators have outscored the opposition by an amazing 16-2 margin over the last three games and Ottawa has also posted a point in five straight tests (4-0-1) since a seven-game slide from Jan. 21-Feb. 7.
This evening's game is also an important battle in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Ottawa is currently seventh in the conference and five points ahead of Toronto and Winnipeg. Washington is just outside the postseason picture, as it trails the Maple Leafs and Jets by two points.
The Senators last played on Monday afternoon at Nassau Coliseum, where they dismantled the hosting New York Islanders by a 6-0 score. Erik Karlsson totaled four points on two goals and two assists as Ottawa chased Islanders goaltender Kevin Poulin before the game was two minutes old. Poulin was yanked after allowing scores 27 seconds apart to Karlsson and Jason Spezza in the first 1:35 of action.
Spezza finished with two goals and is now leading Ottawa in both goals (27) and points (65) this season. The centerman has been on an absolute tear of late, notching seven goals and eight assists during a six-game point streak.
"We got two days rest. Not many teams get that this time of year," Spezza said after Monday's rout. "And there's a benefit to playing games early on, because we can get some energy to move forward."
Brian Lee and Chris Phillips added scores for Ottawa, which had 11 players record a point in the blowout. Craig Anderson stopped 28 shots to notch his third shutout of the season for the Senators.
Ottawa's current winning streak came in the form of a perfect 3-0 road trip, but the team will kick off a three-game homestand tonight. The Sens have lost five of their last six tests at Scotiabank Place and are 15-11-3 as the host this year compared to a 16-11-5 mark on the road.
Meanwhile, road play has been a trouble spot for Washington all season long and the club will be happy to complete a four-game road trip tonight. The Caps are 1-2 on the swing, dropping them to 10-17-3 on the road compared to a 19-8-2 home record.
Washington was dealt a lopsided loss by the last-place Carolina Hurricanes on Monday night, as Eric Staal had two goals and an assist and Justin Peters earned his first career NHL shutout in the 5-0 rout at RBC Center. Caps goaltender Tomas Vokoun lasted just over five minutes, as he was pulled at 5:09 of the first period after goals by Justin Faulk and Anthony Stewart.
Vokoun gave up two goals on seven shots and was replaced by Michal Neuvirth, who made 30 saves on 33 shots the rest of the way. The setback dropped the Capitals to 4-7-3 in their last 14 outings.
"Normally you can try to take some positives out of a game. Tonight, nothing," said the Caps' Troy Brouwer. "You can't wipe it clean because you have to take it in and make sure you know what you're doing wrong, make sure you know what you did wrong. We're going to watch a lot of video, I hope."
Washington's Alex Ovechkin is expected to play tonight despite missing practice on Tuesday for what head coach Dale Hunter called a "maintenance day." The star winger didn't play in the final six minutes of the second period on Monday and although he did return in the third, Ovechkin was seen limping around after the game. Both Ovechkin and Hunter have said that the Russian superstar was not hurt and was instead bothered by an equipment problem.
Ovechkin has just one goal and one assist over his last five games. With 24 goals and 21 assists through 56 games this season, the 26-year-old is on pace for the lowest point total of his seven-year NHL career.
<< Clippers host Nuggets at Staples Center
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Clippers aim to halt a two-game skid and
head into the NBA's All-Star break atop the Pacific Division when they host
the Denver Nuggets tonight.
The Clips lead their Staples Center co-tenants, the L
<< Lakers carry recent baggage into Big D
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Lakers will attempt to put some off-the-court turmoil
behind them tonight when they visit the impetus for much of the acrimony, the
Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavs dethroned the Lakers last season, sweeping them out of
<< Jazz, Wolves square off at Target Center
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Northwest Division rivals meet at Target Center
tonight when the Utah Jazz and Minnesota Timberwolves both try to get back to
the .500 mark on the season and stay out of the cellar in the division.
Oklahoma C
<< Pacers pay a visit to Bobcats
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indiana Pacers try to make it four straight wins this
evening when they visit the hapless Charlotte Bobcats at Time Warner Cable
Arena.
The Pacers continued their recent winning ways on Tuesday, as Roy Hibbe
Lin, Knicks aim to bounce back vs. Hawks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sudden New York Knicks star Jeremy Lin was brought back to
reality when New Jersey Nets point guard Deron Williams took him to school in
a recent contest at Madison Square Garden.
Arguably one of the fanciest point guards
Blues try to extend home streak vs. struggling Bruins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After closing out 2011 as the hottest team in the league,
the new calendar year hasn't been as kind to the Bruins.
The Blues have yet to drop a regulation game at home in 2012.
St. Louis puts its franchise record 21-game
Howard, Magic visit Deron and the Nets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Orlando Magic will try to continue their mastery of the
New Jersey Nets when the two clubs clash tonight from the Prudential Center.
Orlando has won eight in a row and 12 of the past 13 matchups between the
teams, and
Bucks and Bulls clash in the Second City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning NBA MVP Derrick Rose recently made his return to
the hardwood following a five-game absence due to lower back spasms.
Rose and the Bulls will try to give the Central Division-rival Milwaukee Bucks
a few spasms Wed
MySportsbook.com Favors Fighting Irish to win College Football betting odds
According to odds makers at MySportsbook.com, on January 8, the Fighting Irish faithful may be toasting their 14th national title in Arizona – Notre Dame’s first national championship in close to 20 years.
Although MySportsbook.com has listed Notre Dame as the 5-1 favorite to win thecollege football College Football betting, fans in Columbus do not need to cancel their tickets to Glendale just yet. The Ohio State Buckeyes, listed right behind the Irish at 7-1, are also heavy favorites to win college football’s most coveted prize, while West Virginia, USC and the 2007 National Champion Texas Longhorns - all listed at 8-1 – are strong contenders as well.
MySportsbook.com has also posted gambling odds on the conference championships for the ACC, Big 12 and SEC. In the ACC – it could be anyone’s title, particularly for the two schools from the Sunshine State. Florida State and Miami, both listed at 2-1, are favored to win the ACC Championship Game odds, with the ‘Noles hoping to finish in the nation’s top 10 for the first time in five years, and the ‘Canes looking to avenge their 10-7 loss against FSU in last year’s ACC Championship betting.
Moving west to the Big 12, MySportsbook.com has betting lines listing Texas as 7-5 favorites to repeat as conference champions, even though the Longhorns lost their national championship-winning quarterback Vince Young to the NFL. In the south, the Auburn Tigers – led by Heisman-hopeful senior running back Kenny Irons – have been given the best odds to win the SEC Championship odds at 5-2.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
| Notre Dame Ohio State West Virginia Texas USC Florida California Auburn Oklahoma Iowa Louisville Florida State Michigan Miami (FL) LSU Penn State Virginia Tech Nebraska Tennessee Georgia Arizona State Oregon Clemson Texas A&M Texas Tech Alabama Arkansas Boston College Michigan State Maryland South Carolina Colorado Purdue Georgia Tech TCU UCLA Arizona Pittsburgh Iowa State Wisconsin North Carolina State Virginia North Carolina Fresno State Hawaii Northwestern BYU Oregon State UNLV Field (Any Other Team) |
5-1 7-1 8-1 8-1 8-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 18-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 25-1 40-1 40-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 70-1 70-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 150-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 250-1 250-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 400-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 1000-1 1000-1 40-1 |
| Miami (FL) Florida State Virginia Tech Clemson Georgia Tech Boston College Maryland Virginia North Carolina State North Carolina Wake Forest Duke |
2-1 2-1 3-1 7-1 15-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 50-1 500-1 |
| Texas Oklahoma Nebraska Texas Tech Colorado Iowa State Texas A&M Kansas State Missouri Kansas Baylor Oklahoma State |
7-5 9-5 9-2 12-1 14-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 35-1 100-1 100-1 |
| Auburn Florida LSU Georgia Tennessee Arkansas Alabama Mississippi South Carolina Mississippi State Kentucky Vanderbilt |
5-2 11-4 4-1 6-1 7-1 7-1 9-1 20-1 28-1 75-1 100-1 300-1 |
For complete NCAA football odds please visit Mysportsbook.com.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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